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Working Papers

Current

John Ahlquist and Mitch Downey. “The Effects of Import Competition on Unionization.” October 2021. 

Samuel Bazzi, Lisa Cameron, Simone Schaner and Firman Witoelar. "Information, Intermediaries, and International Migration." May 2022.

Samuel Bazzi, Andreas Ferrara, Martin Fiszbein, Thomas Pearson, and Patrick Testa. The Other Great Migration: Southern Whites and the New Right.” June 2022.

Samuel Bazzi, Masyhur Hilmy and Benjamin Marx. "Islam and the State: Religious Education in the Age of Mass Schooling." 2021.

Bowen, T. Renee, J. Lawrence Broz, and Marc-Andreas Muendler. “The World Trade Organization and U.S. Domestic Politics.” January 2022.

Renee Bowen, J. Lawrence Broz and B. Peter Rosendorff. "Trade Policy Transitions: Three Eras of US Trade Policy." Feb. 18, 2022. 

Renee Bowen, Ilwoo Hwang and Stefan Krasa. “Personal Power Dynamics in Bargaining.” May 2022. 

Renee Bowen, Danil Dmitriev and Simone Galperti. ”Learning from Shared News: when Abundant Information Leads to Belief Polarization.” April 26, 2022.

Francisco Garfias, and Ana De La O et al. “Fiscal Contracts?: A Six-country Randomized Experiment on Transaction Costs, Public Services, and Taxation in Developing Countries.” September 2021. 

Francisco Garfias and Emily A. Sellars. “Fiscal Legibility and State Development: Theory and Evidence from Colonial Mexico.” October 2021. 

Teevrat Garg, Caterina Gennaioli, Stefania Lovo, Gregor Singer. "Can Competition Reduce Conflict?" March 2022.

Teevrat Garg, Maulik Jagnani, Hemant K. Pullabhotla. "Structural Transformation and Environmental Externalities." April 2022. 

Teevrat Garg, Rafael Araujo, Francisco Costa. "Public Attention Reduced Forest Fires in Brazil." July 2021. 

Kyle Handley, Fariha Kamal and Wei Ouyang, “A Long View of Employment Growth and Firm Dynamics in the United States: Importers vs. Exporters vs. Non-Traders.” Center for Economic Studies Working Paper #CES-21-38. December 2021. 

Kyle Handley, S. Davis, J. Haltiwanger, J. Lerner, B. Lipsius, and J. Miranda. “The (Heterogenous) Economic Effects of Private Equity Buyouts.” Revise and resubmit, Management Science. July 2021. 

Federica Izzo and Jesse Crosson. “Accountability with Multidimensional Policy Experimentation.”

Federica Izzo, Jon H. Fiva and Janne Tukiainen. “The Gatekeeper's Dilemma: Controlling Political Selection or Incentivizing Team Effort.”

Federica Izzo and Peter Bils. “Crisis Dynamics and Political Control.”

Ruixue Jia, Ying Bai and Jiaojiao Yang. “The Web of Power: How Elite Networks Shaped War and China.” Quarterly Journal of Economics. April 2022. 

Ruixue Jia, Gerard Roland and Yang Xie. “A Theory of Power Structure and Institutional Compatibility: China vs. Europe Revisited.” March 2022. 

Ruixue Jia, Margaret E. Roberts, Ye Wang and Eddie Yang. “The Impact of U.S.-China Tensions on U.S. Science.” April 2022. 

Ruixue Jia, Chong-en Bai, Hongbin Li, and Xin Wang. “Entrepreneurial Reluctance: Talent and Firm Creation in China.” May 2022. 

Ruixue Jia, Xiao Ma and Victoria Xie. “Expecting Floods: Firm Entry, Employment, and Aggregate Implication.” March 2022. 

Michael F. Joseph. "Do different coercive strategies help or hurt deterrence success?"

Michael F. Joseph, Michael Goldfien. “Leadership importance, institutional constraints and conflict: A document-based approach. 

Michael F. Joseph. Rapid power shifts and peace: A theory of grand bargains.”

Michael F. Joseph, Michael Poznansky. “Secret Innovation.”

Michael F. Joseph. Violent Trust.

Michael F. Joseph, Michael Goldfien and Daniel Krcmaric. When Do Leader Attributes Matter? Evidence from the President's Daily Brief. 

Michael F. Joseph. The Efficiency-Stability Tradeoff: How efficient world order drives catastrophic war contagion.

Gaurav Khanna. Large-scale Education Reform in General Equilibrium: Regression Discontinuity Evidence from India. Journal of Political Economy. 

Gaurav Khanna, Carlos Medina, Anant Nyshadham and Jorge Tamayo. "Formal Employment and Organized Crime: Regression Discontinuity Evidence from Colombia." Revise and resubmit, The Economic Journal. April 2022. 

Gaurav Khanna and Priya Mukherjee. "Political Accountability for Populist Policies: Lessons from India's Demonetization." Revise and resubmit, The Journal of Public Economics. August 2021. 

Gaurav Khanna, Emir Murathanoglu, Caroline Theoharides and Dean Yang. "Abundance from Abroad: Migrant Income and Long-Run Economic Development." March 2022. 

Gaurav Khanna, Wenquan Liang, A Mushfiq Mobarak and Ran Song. "The Productivity Consequences of Pollution-Induced Migration in China." October 2021. 

Gaurav Khanna, Carlos Medina, Anant Nyshadham, Daniel Ramos, Jorge Tamayo and Audrey Tiew. "Spatial Mobility, Economic Opportunity, and Crime."

Gaurav Khanna, Natalie Bau, Corinne Low, and Alessandra Voena. "Cultural Institutions and Structural Change: Dowries as Pensions When Sons Migrate." 

Munseob Lee, Minho Kim, Yongseok Shin. "The Plant-Level View of an Industrial Policy: The Korean Heavy Industry Drive of 1973." September 2021.

Munseob Lee, Claudia Macaluso and Felipe Schwartzman. “Minority Unemployment, Inflation, and Monetary Policy.” March 2022. 

Munseob Lee. Allocation of Female Talent and Cross-Country Productivity Differences. April 2022. 

Munseob Lee, David Argente and Sara Moreira. The Life Cycle of Products: Evidence and Implications.” Revise and resubmit, Journal of Political Economy. November 2021. 

Munseob Lee. “Government Purchases and Firm Growth.” Revise and resubmit, American Economic Journal: Applied Economics. August 2021. 

Munseob Lee and Churn Ken Lee. “Regional Redistribution through SBA Guaranteed Loan Programs.” Revise and resubmit, Journal of Corporate Finance. December 2021. 

Sara Lowes and E. Le Rossignol. "Ancestral Livelihoods and Moral Universalism: Evidence from Transhumant Pastoralism." 2022.

Sara Lowes, E. Le Rossignol and N. Nunn. "Traditional Supernatural Beliefs and Prosocial Behavior." 2022. 

Marc-Andreas Muendler, Sascha O. Becker, Hartmut Egger and Michael Koch. "Tasks, occupations, and wage inequality in an open economy." January 2022. 

Marc-Andreas Muendler, Claudio Labanca and Danielken Molina. "Preparing to export." January 2022. 

Marc-Andreas Muendler, Xiao Ma and Alejandro Nakab. "Learning by exporting and wage profiles: new evidence from Brazil." July 2021. 

Karthik Muralidharan and Abhijeet Singh. "Improving Public Sector Management at Scale? Experimental Evidence on School Governance in India." May 2022. 

Karthik Muralidharan, Mauricio Romero and Kaspar Wuthrich. "Factorial Designs, Model selection, and (incorrect) Inference in Randomized Experiments." January 2022. 

Karthik Muralidharan, Alejandro J. Ganimian and Christopher R. Walters. "Augmenting State Capacity for Child Development: Experimental Evidence From India." Revise and resubmit Journal of Political Economy. December 2021. 

Karthik Muralidharan, Peter Arcidiacono, Eun-young Shim, and John Singleton. "Experimentally Validating Welfare Evaluation of School Vouchers: Part I." July 2021.

Karthik Muralidharan, Renata Lemos and Daniela Scur. "Personnel Management and School Productivity: Evidence from India." Revise and resubmit, The Economic Journal. July 2021.

Paul Niehaus, Karthik Muralidharan and Sandip Sukhtankar. “Identity verification standards in welfare programs: experimental evidence from India. Revise and resubmit, Review of Economics and Statistics. September 2021.

Paul Niehaus, Karthik Muralidharan and Sandip Sukhtankar. General equilibrium effects of (improving) public employment programs.”

Paul Niehaus, Johannes Haushofer, Carlos Paramo, Ted Miguel and Michael Walker. “Targeting impact versus deprivation.” April 2022. 

Paul Niehaus, Davide Viviano, Kaspar Wuthrich. “(When) should you adjust inferences for multiple hypothesis testing?” November 2021. 

James Rauch, Samuel Bazzi, Raquel de Freitas Oliveira, Marc-Andreas Muendler. “Credit Supply Shocks and Firm Dynamics: Evidence from Brazil.” August 2021. 

Nico Ravanilla. “The Extraordinary Effect of Religious Sect Endorsements on Vote Choice: Evidence from Iglesia ni Cristo's "Vote as One" Teaching.” 2022. 

Nico Ravanilla. “Mitigating Adverse Political Selection: Experimental Evidence from a Leadership Training for Aspiring Politicians in the Philippines.” 2021. 

Nico Ravanilla. “Motives in Pork Distribution: Partisan Bias or Patronage?” 2021. 

Nico Ravanilla and Allen Hicken. “Poverty, social networks, and clientelism.” Revise and Resubmit. 2021. 

Nico Ravanilla, Eitan Paul, Allen Hicken, Ronald Mendoza. “Social Accountability in a Patronage Democracy: A Field Experiment on Members of Congress in the Philippines.”  2022.  

Nico Ravanilla, Dotan Haim, Matthew Nanes. “How street-level bureaucrats’ personalities affect citizen assessments of the government.” 2022. 

Nico Ravanilla, Dotan Haim, Renard Sexton. “Winning ‘hearts and minds’ in moments of crisis? Evidence from the Philippines during Covid-19.” 2022. 

Nico Ravanilla, Dotan Haim, Matthew Nanes. “How community-oriented policing affects police officers.” 2022. 

Nico Ravanilla, Matthew Nanes, Dotan Haim. “Accountability and Compliance in Street-Level Bureaucracy.” 2022. 

Nico Ravanilla, Renard Sexton. “Audience Cost or Posturing Premium? How Empty Threats Benefit Leaders in Small Countries.” 2021. 

Fabian Trottner. “Misallocations in Monopsonistic Labor Markets.” 2022. \

Joel Watson and David Miller. “An Active-Contracting Perspective on Equilibrium Selection in Relational Contracts.” February 2022. 

Steve Pak Wu. “Corporate Balance Sheets and Sovereign Risk Prema." July 2021.

Steve Pak Wu and Charles Engel. ”Liquidity and Exchange Rates: An Empirical Investigation.” Sept.13, 2021.

2020

Kyle Handley and Fariha Kamal. “Rising Import Tariffs, Falling Export Growth: When Modern Supply Chains Meet Old-Style Protectionism.” 2020.

Paasha Mahdavi, Christina J. Schneider, and Jennifer L. Tobin. “Coordinated Financial Rescues.” 2020.

Paul Niehaus. A theory of good intentions. 2020.

Nico Ravanilla. “Can We Encourage Publicly Motivated Citizens to Run for Office?: Evidence from a Leadership Training Workshop for First-Time Political Candidates​." 2020. 

2019

Emilie M. Hafner-Burton, Heidi M. McNamara and Christina J. Schneider. “(In)Credible Commitments? International Organizations and Foreign Direct Investment."

CCD Postdoc Fellow

Yoo Sun Jung. "Legalization of International Institutions and Its Discontents: GATT vs. WTO Adjudication, 1989-2015." 2021.

Yoo Sun Jung. "Dispute Settlement and Power Asymmetries in International Trade: Regional Trade Agreements and the WTO." 

Minju Kim. "How Bureaucrats Represent Economic Interests: Partisan Control over Trade Adjustment Assistance." Jan. 27, 2022.

Gustavo de Souza and Hashi Li. "The Employment Consequences of Anti-Dumping Tariffs: Lessons from Brazil." May 3, 2022.